The Houston Rockets (11-12) and the New Orleans Pelicans (10-12) square off in a Western Conference battle on Tuesday. The Pelicans host the proceedings at Smoothie King Center, with the team sporting a 6-5 home record. New Orleans is also on a three-game winning streak, with Houston trying to pick up a road win on short rest. Josh Hart (back) is questionable for the Pelicans. Victor Oladipo (rest) is out for the Rockets, as is center Christian Wood (ankle).
Tip-off is set for 7:30 p.m. ET in New Orleans. The latest Pelicans vs. Rockets odds from William Hill Sportsbook list New Orleans as a 6.5-point favorite, up two points from the opening line. The over-under for total points is set at 226.5, up from opening at 220.5. Before making any Rockets vs. Pelicans picks, be sure to see the NBA predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s proven computer model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every NBA game 10,000 times, and it returned over $5,000 in profit on its top-rated NBA picks last season. The model is also up more than $8,300 on top-rated NBA picks over the past two-plus seasons. Dating back to last season, it enters Week 8 of the 2020-21 NBA schedule on a stunning 79-46 roll on top-rated NBA picks against the spread. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on Pelicans vs. Rockets. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Now, here are several NBA odds and betting trends for Rockets vs. Pelicans:
- Rockets vs. Pelicans spread: Pelicans -6.5
- Rockets vs. Pelicans over-under: 226.5 points
- Rockets vs. Pelicans money line: Pelicans -270; Rockets +230
- HOU: The Rockets are 6-4 against the spread in the last 10 games
- NO: The Pelicans are 5-5 against the spread in the last 10 games
Why the Rockets can cover
Houston’s offense hasn’t been electric this season, but this is a friendly matchup for the Rockets on that end of the floor. The Pelicans are allowing 112.6 points per 100 possessions this season, a bottom-tier mark in the NBA, and they rank in the bottom third of the league in effective field goal percentage allowed (54.6 percent). New Orleans is also below-average at creating turnovers, forcing a giveaway on only 13.9 percent of possessions, and Houston can be aggressive as a result.
On the other side, the Rockets are a top-five defensive team statistically in both overall efficiency and shooting efficiency allowed. The Pelicans also turn the ball over at a high frequency, giving the ball away on 14.9 percent of possessions, and that feeds into Houston’s hands as a top-10 team in turnover creation this season.
Why the Pelicans can cover
The Pelicans are an excellent rebounding team on both ends of the floor, which leads to an edge in the possession battle. New Orleans is fourth-best in the NBA on the offensive glass, grabbing 29.8 percent of their own missed shots, and the Pelicans are sixth-best in defensive rebounding, securing 75.1 percent of misses from their opponents.
From there, Stan Van Gundy’s team ranks in the top ten in second-chance points allowed per game (12.1) and points allowed in the paint per game (43.4), protecting the rim and preventing easy opportunities. Offensively, Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram each average more than 23 points per game, with the Pelicans scoring 111.6 points per 100 possession as a team. New Orleans also generates free throw attempts at a high level, ranking in the top five of the league in free throw rate this season.
How to make Rockets vs. Pelicans picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning under on the total, with the simulations projecting 218 combined points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can get that pick at SportsLine.
So who wins Rockets vs. Pelicans? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks.