To make a $100 profit by betting on Caleb Plant to retain his IBF super middleweight title by defeating former champion Caleb Truax, one would have to risk $3,000, which makes about as much sense as moving to Cleveland.
The unbeaten Plant is -3000 at BetMGM, while Truax is +900.
The two will meet on Saturday (8 p.m. ET, Fox) in Los Angeles, and unless you have the net worth of Jeff Bezos, it’s impossible to make money by placing a straight bet on Plant.
If you were to take Plant at +3000 and risked $150,000, you’d make a profit of $5,000 if Plant wins. Bezos, Bill Gates, Warren Buffet, et al, didn’t get rich by playing those kinds of odds.
But if you have to bet on the fight, there are proposition bets available that might make it possible to make a profit without taking on an exorbitant risk.
Plant figures to outbox Truax, a former champion who upset James DeGale in 2017 and lost the belt in the rematch. Plant is a solid boxer who lacks a mega-punch. But Plant figures to be able to touch Truax repeatedly, and those connects will begin to wear him down.
As the fight goes on, Truax’s defenses will melt and Plant is liable to get a stoppage.
The proposition I like most is Plant in Rounds 7 through 12, which is +140. Truax is a smart fighter and while he’s on the back nine of his career, he knows the significance of the fight and should be ready to put up a battle.
But I don’t think he’s as gifted as Plant and so I think the odds of a finish increase as the fight goes on. The return isn’t massive at +140, but a profit is a profit. And I think this is a three-unit play, so I will lay $300 with the hope of a $420 profit by Plant winning in Rounds 7 through 12.
I’ll also play one unit at $100 on Plant to win in Rounds 9 through 12, which is at +300. That takes away Rounds 7 and 8, but it more than doubles the return on a late Plant finish.
Long shot players may like Truax by decision at +2500, and if you think he has a reasonable chance to win, which I don’t, then this is the bet to make. It’s highly unlikely he’d be able to stop Plant, so his path to victory is almost certainly by decision.
It’s not the most attractive fight to bet because it seems so one-sided, but the propositions should at least get you in the game without making a crazily big-bet.
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